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| P R Sundar, Aditya Trading Solutions |
Time: 10.30 pm
September outlook:
Positive Things
- Finally, new Governor is taking over RBI, market expect some out of box thinking from Raguram Rajan, the new RBI Governor.
- Syria problem is postponed at least for the time being.
- FIIs have already lost over 50% of their investment value in the last two months, due to the double whammy of falling market and currency depreciation. So probability of their continued selling is very low.
- Probability of Diesel price hike is very high.
- NRI bonds may be issued to prop up Rupee value.
- Markets fall drastically in the last leg of capitulation. Nifty fell around 400 points in two trading sessions and Rupee fell fro around 63 to 68.80 in two trading sessions show that last leg of fall is over.
- Most importantly when there is a consensus opinion, market will always move in the opposite direction. Now everybody is bearish and talking about 5000 and 4800 level in Nifty. (It is the same set of people who were talking about index level 6800 and 7000, including top foreign brokerages)
Negative Things
- FED tapering news from FOMC meeting in the middle of September.
- GDP news that is coming out tomorrow may not be good.
- Inflation, IIP data may not be good in September also.
- Sentiments towards emerging markets will not turn bullish so easily in one month.
- Markets may not go up significantly as every rise will be met with huge selling.
- At the same time markets will not fall drastically from here as most of the selling happened already.
- In my opinion, Nifty will trade between 5100 and 5800.
- Sell Nifty 5000 Put and 5800 Call options simutaneously.
- Sell Reliance 800 Put option.
- Sell Infy 3400 Call option.
- Sell Axis bank 700 Put option.
- Sell bank Nifty 7500 Put option and 11000 Call option simultaneously.
- Buy Tata Motors 300 Call option.
- Sell HDFC 600 Put option
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