Dalal Street Week Ahead, October Week 1 | Stocks and Commodities

P R Sundar, Aditya Trading Solutions

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

September 30 to October 4

1. Monday September 30, CAD data will be released. Usually Q1 data will be bad, due to seasonal factors. Estimates ranges from 3.6% to 5.4%. Anything above 5% will be considered as negative for markets. Especially when the market closed below 200 day moving average. Anything below is a 'bonanza' as per Finance Ministry.
2. Monday before our markets open, Chinese PMI data will be released, that will have some impact in all Asian markets.
3. Also on Monday in US,Chicago PMI and Dallas Manufacturing Survey will be released.
4. If no agreement on Debt talk in US by today, then only one more day, Monday 30th September is left to reach agreement. If no agreement reached by Monday night, i.e. by Tuesday morning here, the markets all over the world will fall significantly. All non essential govt. officers in US will have to go on 'No Pay Leave' from Tuesday.
5. Tuesday morning, HSBC Manufacturing PMI data will be released. That has been bad for the last few months. This time also it is going to be the same way.
6. In US, Institute of Supply Management manufacturing and construction spending reports are due.
7. Wednesday is a Holiday due to Gandhi Jayanthi.
8. In US, ADP Private sector employment report is due. That will give some idea about Friday's job's report.
9. Thursday, HSBC Services PMI will be released.
10. In US, weekly jobless claims report is due.
11. Friday US jobs and unemployment report will be a major news as that will increase or decrease the expectation of Fed tapering at the end of the month. But this data will be released only if there is an agreement on Debt talk and Govt. functions, otherwise this data will not be released.

Conclusion: Get ready for roller coaster ride due to heavy data week.