April Outlook | Stocks and Commodities

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March 30, 2014
Time: 9 am

April Outlook:

1. In our march outlook we estimated the upper range for Nifty as 6600, but it has crossed taht.
2. FIIs bought continuously in March.
3. They have bought for more than Rs 20000 crores.
4. April is a very good month for option sellers.
5. First, there are three public holidays, so the time value will be in favor of option sellers.
6. Second, April starts with high volatility, so the option premiums are so high.
7. Bank Nifty 14200 Call option is trading at Rs 45, when there are only 16 more trading sessions.
8. Third, there are lot of event risks starting with RBI policy.
9. Rupee closed below 60 for the first time in the last one year on Friday.
10. Q4 results will add to the volatility in the second half, starting with Infosys results on 15th April.

 Recommendation:

1. Nifty is likely to trade between 6200 and 7100, so sell Nifty 6200 Put option and 7100 Call option.
2. Sell Bank Nifty 11000 Put option and 14200 Call option. (Choose higher strike price if opened on Monday)
3. Sell Axis Bank 1250 Put option and 1650 Call option.
4. Sell Auro Pharma 460 Put option and 600 Call option.