2015 out look | Stocks and Commodities

January 1, 2015
Time: 8 am

Outlook for 2015:

1. First, I wish all my readers and followers A Happy New Year.
2. One year may be too long, but here I high light some of the factors that will affect our markets in 2015.
3. First RBI policy in Feb. 2015. There was an unofficial news that Ministry of Finance will insist RBI to cut rates even before Feb. policy meeting.
4. If that is true then there may be a surprise in the third week of Jan. when Inflation data will be out.
5. If not, RBI is likely to cut rates in Feb. policy meeting.
6. Next is the Budget at the end of Feb.
7. These two events are make or break events for first 6 months of our markets.
8. Then the Fed interest rate hike in the middle of 2015 which will bring a good correction in all emerging markets.
9. Nifty is likely to correct more than 10% from its peak when this event happens.
10. Crude oil has fallen by 50% in the last few months and hence it can reverse the trend anytime in 2015 and if that happens then it is not good for India.
11. On the other hand, if Crude continue to fall to US$40 and below then that will bring panic in other emerging markets like Russia and Brazil. Those problems will spill over to other emerging markets like India.
12. So sideways movement in Crude oil is the best thing that can happen so that India is at advantage. 
13. Greece election results in early part of 2015 may bring instability in European markets and that may affect world markets.
14. If there is any war or war like situation in Ukraine or North Korea or in any Gulf region, that may bring instability to all the world markets.
15. Ebola breakout is another important thing to worry as it has shown that it can affect markets in few countries like Japan and UK.
16. The conflict between China and Japan over some islands is under control. If that escalates in 2015, that will be very bad as Japan and China are two major economies of the world.
17. Another important thing is the terror worries. Though terrorists tried to destabilise the world in 2014, they were not successful. Rise of ISIS and Pakistan and Afghanistan based terrorists are the cause for worry.
18. In 2014, the terrorism has taken a new dimension. It has spread to cyber terrorism. Servers of Sony hacked in 2014. Twitter account holder in India was arrested for spreading ISIS news.
19. Though our markets has performed best in 2014 compared to last 5 years, although benchmarks have given 30% return, IPOs did not take of. The amount mobilised was lowest in the last 10 years.
20. So if the markets are good, then there will be lot of IPOs and PSU divestments which will suck the liquidity from the secondary markets.
21. The the liquidity issue may bring the markets down.
22. So in 2015, there are lot of positive and negative news. So it will be interesting to see how our markets perform in 2015.
23. Since August 2013, there has been no significant correction in our markets. A significant correction is defined as fall of more than 10% in Nifty or Sensex.
24. In 2014, our markets just moved one way without any correction. That may not happen in 2015.
25. So be ready for roller coaster ride in 2015.