Dalal Street Week Ahead | Stocks and Commodities

February 8, 2015
Time: 9 pm

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. Last week was the worst week for our markets in the recent times.
2. Bank Nifty has fallen more than 2000 points from the peak as BoB, PNB, ICICI, IOB all declared very bad results.
3. Even outside Banking, high flying companies like Auro Pharma, Tata Motors also declared very bad results.
4. On top of bad results, opinion polls showing the gain for AAP in Delhi affected the sentiment very badly.
5. Exit polls all showing the same results yesterday is a bad news for markets.
6. According to Grey Market operators, Nifty is likely to open gap down 40 to 50 points on Monday.
7. Bad results from Tata Steel over the weekend will check the metal stocks.
8. Power stocks will be under pressure due to AAP effect.
9. On Monday, in addition to exit poll reaction, markets will react to Bank of India results. Though this is a mid cap company, we should remember that the last downfall in Bank Nifty was triggered by IOB results and IOB fell more than 10%.
10. But analysts believe that Bank of India will declare very good results (mainly because of low base effect)
11. DLF and L&T will also declare results on Monday.
12. There may be some kind of short covering (which is overdue anyway) towards the end of the day as the Govt. will declare very good GDP data after the markets close (due to the way they calculate the GDP data). The data is likely to be over 6%.
13. Also we should not forget that exit polls can go wrong. If that happens traders may not be able to react on Tuesday as counting starts at 8 am and the trend will clear by the time our market opens at 9.15 am as Delhi is very small state and counting will not take much time. So due to these two reasons, there may be some kind of short covering.
14. On Tuesday, our markets will react to the GDP data declared on Monday evening as well as the actual results of Delhi election.
15. On Wednesday, Euro Finance Ministries will meet Greek ministers to sort out the debt issue. If there is any negative outcome, markets will react all over the world.
16. On Thursday, after the markets close, IIP data and CPI data are due from India.
17. On Friday, SBI results will watched carefully as most PSU Banks failed to meet market expectation.
18. Exit Poll results, actual results of Delhi, IIP, GDP and Inflation data, Global cues, FII investment pattern, Rupee movement and budget expectation all will make our markets very volatile next week.
19. Nifty future should take support at 8600 failing which the fall will be very severe, fist towards 8200 then to 8000.
20. Govt. infusing 6900 crores in PSU Banks is a positive news for PSU Banks.
21. Nifty future is expected to trade between 8500 and 8900 for the next 5 trading sessions.