Dalal Street Week Ahead, November 8, 2015 | Stocks and Commodities

November 8, 2015
Time: 1.15 pm

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. Last week, markets fell 4 out of 5 sessions.
2. Markets closed at the lowest point of the last two weeks.
3. On Monday, there will be a triple whammy, one BJP lost very badly in Bihar and second best possible US jobs data and third worst possible China export import economic data
4. Now 68% chances are there for December rate hike which is not a good news for emerging markets.
5. Nifty hit a low of 7906 in Singapore on Friday and Nifty future is likely to fall below 7900.
6. The next support is only at around 7800 where the Put option open interest is highest.
7. However, India VIX is likely to fall.
8. Over the weekend Sun Pharma and Auro Pharma declared bad results. So Pharma index will continue to fall.
9. On Tuesday, China Inflation data is due.
10. On Wednesday, our markets will be open only for Muhurat Trading.
11. On Thursday, our markets are closed. IIP data and CPI data is due in the evening.
12. On Friday, our markets will react to IIP and Inflation data. Coal India will come out with quarterly results.
13. On Saturday, officially earning seasons come to an end.
14. It is difficult to predict a trading range for Nifty for the coming week. I expect Nifty to trade between 7800 and 8200.
15. Clearly 8200 will be the upper limit for this expiry. So one can consider selling Call options of 8200 and above.
16. But the premiums will come down drastically by the end of tomorrow as there are only 10 more trading sessions after tomorrow and VIX is likely to fall as all important events are gone.
17. Upper limit for Bank Nifty is 18000. So one consider selling Bank Nifty 18000 and above Call options also.
18. Tomorrow I expect Nifty future to open below 7900.
19. One can consider selling Nifty 8200 and above Call option even in December series as 8200 will be the cap even in December. Fed rate hike will haunt the markets in December.
20. Tomorrow's market movement is very important to watch.