Dalal Street Week Ahead | Stocks and Commodities

November 22, 2015
Time: 10.15 am

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. Last week markets closed positive on a weekly basis after falling for 3 consecutive weeks.
2. Last Friday Nifty closed at 7857 compared to the previous week close of 7762.
3. Last Friday Bank Nifty closed at 17056 compared to the previous week close of 16933.
4. Both are up by about 100 points. Bank Nifty under performed as the ratio of Nifty to Bank Nifty should be about 1:2.
5. Next week, there are only three trading sessions for expiry.
6. The expiry day coincides with the beginning of parliament session.
7. By studying the options data, Nifty is expected to expire anywhere between 7700 and 8000.
8. Similarly, Bank Nifty is expected to expire anywhere between 16600 and 17500.
9. Above prediction is based on option data, now let us look at my own view.
10. DIIs continue to support the markets by making huge purchases.
11. FII selling has slowed down in the last few days, on Friday they have sold for less than 100 crores in Cash market.
12. There is no reason to heavily short in the F&O market for FIIs.
13. Global cues are good despite France terrorist attack and US interest rate hike fears.
14. Friday night, SGX Nifty closed with a positive bias.
15. So by considering all these factors, I think the markets will trade with positive bias.
16. So my expectation is that Nifty will expire between 7900 and 8000 and Bank Nifty will expire between 17100 and 17300.
17. If on Thursday, Parliament do not function, if opposition blocks the Parliament from functioning, then things may change.
18. A group of top FIIs have met Rahul Gandhi to discuss about GST bill assage.
19. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley also met Rahul Gandhi regarding GST.
20. With this softening stand by BJP, congress may allow GST bill to pass through.
21. Though BJP lost Bihar, Congress did not gain, if Congress considers the defeat of BJP in Bihar as a big issue then the real defeat will be for Congress.
22. That is because, people will start looking at Nitish Kumar as an alternate to Narendra Modi which is not going to benefit Congress anyway.
23. After this expiry how the market is going to move in December series is all depends on GST bill.
24. We will discuss this in detail next week.
25. On Monday, German Manufacturing PMI and US Existing Home Sales data are due.
26. On Tuesday, US Q3 GDP data and Consumer confidence data are due.
27. On Wednesday, our markets are closed, Core Durable Goods order data and New Home Sales data are due from US.
28. On Thursday, F&O expiry and the beginning of Parliament session will be the key things. US markets are closed due to Thanksgiving Day.
29. On Friday, there are no market moving news.
30. So markets are expected to be volatile and may likely to maintain positive bias.