December Outlook | Stocks and Commodities

November 27, 2015
Time: 6.15 pm

December Outlook:

1. November series was a disappointing one.
2. Nifty fell around 3% in November.
3. FII selling continued as the prospect of US hiking interest rate has increased.
4. Though December started with optimism about GST we have to wait and see what is going to happen.
5. RBI policy meet on Dec.1 is a non event as RBI has already reduced the rates by 50 basis point last time.
6. As usual markets in the first week will be reacting to Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data from many countries and monthly sales data of cars and two wheelers will affect the Auto sector. US jobs data on Wednesday and Friday next week will be the key trigger for Fed to decide about the rate hike.
7. In the second week, IIP data and Inflation data will be the key data to watch.
8. Third week of December will be the key week as Fed decides about the rate hike.
9. On top of all these things, GST will be the key issue.
10. People expect a big move in December.
11. There are many reasons for that.
12. First, our markets consolidated for three months after late August fall due to China currency depreciation.
13. Usually after 3 to 4 months, markets take some direction on either side.
14. So we can expect that to happen in December.
15. Second, GST, US rate hike are two big market moving factors are there.
16. Third, the highest open interest among Puts is at 7500 and among Calls is at 8500.
17. Highest open interest at 500 points distance on both sides tell you that market has the potential to move more than 6% on either side.
18. Fourth, December is a 5 week month. There is more time for expiry and hence option sellers are more careful about the trend of the market.
19. So I have chosen a right time to take time off for my holiday.
20. I intend to take positions after a lot of data is out and clarity emerges in GST issue.