Dalal Street Week Ahead | Stocks and Commodities

December 19, 2015
Time: 9.30 pm

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. Last week markets were up on first four days and down on Friday.
2. Nifty was up by about 150 points.
3. But the best thing was the crash in India VIX.
4. Bank Nifty 16000 Put and 17000 Call together lost about Rs 170 points in just one week.
5. Just after the Fed event short covering set in all over the world.
6. But just the following day all markets fell as crude prices keep coming down.
7. Just in two days Dow lost more than 500 points.
8. But yesterday's fall of more than 300 points in Dow was more to do with "Quadruple Witching" when stock futures, stock options, index futures and index options all expired on the same day.
9. Now it is clear that GST bill will not go through.
10. This is a big negative for our markets.
11. November expiry was around 7900 and that was the case from August series.
12. Two key events Fed event and GST bill were the big uncertainties.
13. Fed event was more or less factored in before the event, but there were high hopes of GST bill getting passed.
14. Now with the global cues turning negative, GST bill is not going to be passed, markets may come under pressure.
15. Still, highest open interest among Puts is at 7500 and highest open interest among Calls is at 8000.
16. There are only 8 more trading sessions for this expiry.
17. Next Friday is a holiday due to Christmas.
18. Though markets fell on Friday, FIIs did not sell significantly in Cash market.
19. On Monday, Sun Pharma will react to the US FDA warning. There are no other market moving news.
20. On Tuesday, GDP data and Existing Home sales data are due from US.
21. On Wednesday, Core Durable Goods order and New Home sales data from US and GDP data from UK are due. Parliament session comes to an end on Wednesday.
22. On Thursday, many world markets are closed and there are no markets moving news.
23. Nifty may swing between 7500 and 8000.
24. Since the India VIX is trading below 15, the fall or rise may not be drastic and markets may drift slowly.
25. Nifty will turn bearish if Nifty spot falls below 7720.
26. One can consider selling 8000 Call option on every rise and 7500 Put option on every fall.