January Outlook | Stocks and Commodities

December 31, 2015
Time: 10.45 pm

January Outlook:

1. December month was a flat month.
2. First day of December expiry, Nifty closed at 7943 and the last day of the December expiry, Nifty closed at 7946, just 3 points higher.
3. But in between Nifty almost tested the September low.
4. January series begins with a very low India VIX below 14.
5. So the option premiums are very low.
6. FIIs have surprised by buying more than Rs 1000 crores of shares in Cash market on the expiry day.
7. Since the VIX is very low, January series may be a range bound series.
8. Nifty is likely to trade between 7700 and 8200 in January.
9. As usual first two weeks will be dominated by data like Auto and Cement sales data, Manufacturing and Service PMI data, IIP and Inflation data, US jobs report, etc.
10. The last two weeks will be dominated by the corporate results.
11. The expectation of good corporate results is very low, many front line counters hit fresh 52 week low is the indication.
12. FIIs buy figure in the first two weeks will be keenly watched to know the 2016 allocation of FII funds towards India.
13. So things may change after 5 to 10 trading sessions, we will know the direction very clearly by then.
14. So it may be one day up and one day down for next few days.
15. Nobody is bullish about the overall markets. Every one is bullish only on individual stocks.