Dalal Street Week Ahead, January 17, 2016 | Stocks and Commodities

January 17, 2016
Time: 1.30 pm

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. Markets tend to make big moves in January.
2. And that trend may continue for the rest of the year.
3. This time markets all over the world have fallen between 6 to 15% this January.
4. Our markets showed such a high volatility for the last three trading sessions.
5. When the markets are such volatile, markets will eventually break down.
6. That is what has happened on Friday afternoon.
7. That was expected but what was not expected the severity of fall in certain sectors like PSU Banks.
8. SBI can fall more than 6% even at this low level.
9. Though people say this is the final leg of the down trend, I do not agree.
10. Markets may stabilise around this level or may continue to fall, but surely no big up move is expected.
11. China and Europe have gone into bear territory by falling more than 20% from last year peak.
12. It may be a matter of time other markets follow them.
13. World markets are falling, Crude prices keep crashing, FIIs continue to sell, there is no sign of LIC stepping in to buy, then how long DIIs can support the markets?
14. So the real fall will be when DIIs are left with no money to support the markets.
15. But let us hope that it may not happen.
16. Since Friday US markets fell, Asian markets are likely to maintain negative bias on Monday.
17. So our markets are also likely to fall further as there was huge FII selling as well as due to negative global cues.
18. On Tuesday, China GDP data and Manufacturing data are the two key data to watch.
19. So markets may be under pressure on Tuesday also if China GDP is disappointing.
20. Or "Sell on rumour and buy on news" may also happen. So it will be difficult to predict the movements on Tuesday.
21. On Tuesday evening, Reliance will come out with results and the markets will react to the results on Wednesday morning.
22. It is only because of Infosys and Reliance, markets are not falling severely and that may be tested on Wednesday.
23. For the remaining two trading sessions, there are no market moving news.
24. If markets continue to fall, then 7550 level will become the resistance which was the support last time.
25. Asian Paints and Wipro results are due on Monday.
26. Reliance and HCL Tech results are due on Tuesday.
27. Axis Bank results are due on Wednesday.
28. Idea results are due on Thurday.
29. ITC results are due on Friday.
30. Nifty is likely to trade between 7200 and 7700 next week.