Dalal Street Week Ahead | Stocks and Commodities

January 30, 2016
Time: 9.30 pm

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. Last week, Nifty traded almost flat for the first four days and broke out on Friday.
2. Compared to previous Friday, Nifty closed about 2% higher on Friday, the entire 2% rally coming only on Friday.
3. But Bank Nifty has closed almost flat for the week.
4. That is mainly due to ICICI Bank's NPA shock.
5. Since ICICI Bank came with higher NPA, though ICICI Bank recovered by the end of Friday, people started shorting SBI, PNB and Bank of Baroda expecting worst results from them.
6. On Friday Nifty was up by 2% but PSU Bank index was down by 2% and that is the only sector that traded lower on Friday.
7. On Friday US markets were also higher by more than 2%.
8. The turn around came as Japan stunned world markets by announcing negative interest rates.
9. Coming to next week, the positive momentum is likely to continue.
10.  On Monday people will be watching very closely the Manufacturing and Services PMI data from India, China and other countries.
11. Auto stock will be in focus as they announce monthly sales figures.
12. OMC will be in focus as there may be some hike in petrol and diesel prices tomorrow.
13. Tech Mahindra will be in focus as it declares results on Monday.
14. On Tuesday every one will be focusing on RBI policy. Though nobody expect any policy change, a 25 basis point cut may surprise the markets.
15. On Wednesday ADP Non Farm Payroll data is due from US.
16. On Thursday, Tata Steel and Bajaj Auto will declare results.
17. On Friday, Bosch and Lupin will declare results. Non Farm Payroll data from US Govt. is due.
18. Now we can be sure that 7200 is the support for Nifty for short term.
19. The resistance will be around 7800. 
20. After selling everyday in January series (except first day of January series), for more than Rs 10000 crores, FIIs bought shares worth more than 500 crores on the first day of February series.
21. Rupee has also appreciated on Friday.
22. So people will be watching very closely the FII buy/sell figures and Rupee movement for the further direction.
23. I have sold Put options of Nifty 7200, 7100, 7000, 6900 and 6800.
24. I am not selling any Call option, I might consider selling Call option if markets mover higher.
25. I have sold Put options of Bank Nifty 14000 and below and Call option of 17000.
26. Let us see how this work out for this month.

Important Announcement:

As I am going to Gujarat for one week, I may not write the blog regularly.

I will be back to Chennai by next Sunday 7th February.