Markets today | Stocks and Commodities

January 7, 2016
Time: 9.30 pm

Markets today:

1. Markets fell as we have expected in the morning.
2. On Monday, China markets suspended the trading and here Nifty fell by 175 points.
3. Today also the same thing happened. Nifty fell by about 175 points.
4. But the broader markets fell much more than Monday.
5. When was the last time we saw all the 50 stocks in Nifty fell?
6. When was the last time we saw only 2 out of 168 F&O stocks closed positive?
7. If I am not wrong, all these happened only in 2008.
8. But that was the peak when Sensex rose from 3000 in 2003 to 21000 in 2008.
9. In 2008, markets bottomed out in about 14 months.
10. Now we are already 9 months into the falling market.
11. But this time things are different and the conditions are worse for most other economies and not so bad for India.
12. Stable Govt., reforms push by the Govt., lower commodity prices all favourable to India.
13. But FIIs may continue to sell as many sovereign wealth funds from Gulf will continue to sell.
14. Technically, when an index hit double bottom and rise, the rise will be very good.
15. But this time Nifty is very close to the double bottom made around 7550, which is likely to be tested at least during intraday tomorrow.
16. FIIs have sold for more than Rs 1000 crores and DII buying was nowhere close to that figure.
17. India VIX has shot up by about 15%.
18. 10 out of 12 PSU Bank Nifty stocks hit 52 week low.
19. Axis Bank fell as Govt. plans to offload the shares.
20. L&T has become a crude oil play now, whenever crude oil fall, L&T falls. Today L&T also hit 52 week low. Though L&T has nothing to do with Crude, they have lot of business interest in Gulf.
21. Likewise, Tata Motors is a China play as they sell more JLR vehicles in China and that share fell drastically.
22. Metal stocks melted under the China heat. Jindal Steel, once a Nifty stock, fell more than 10%.
23. Real estate stocks also fell drastically.
24. Dow, after opening nearly 350 points lower, recovered more than 200 points from intraday low as of now.
25. Many Europen indices also recovered about half of the losses.
26. SGX Nifty is trading slightly positive.
27. But all these will not be counted, what is more important is how China market is going to open and trade tomorrow.
28. That is a billion dollar question now as we will be loosing in billions if the market mayhem continues.
29. Tomorrow being Friday, last one hour of trading will be very important. There may be some sharp swing on either direction in the afternoon.
30. Let us hope things stabilise from tomorrow. We need to have two to three days of stable trade in order for the VIX to fall and hence the premium.
31. It is so scary to see 7000 Put option being traded actively, that too at a huge premium of Rs 20 per share, with an open interest of more than 17 lakh shares.
32. So we need to wait until 7 am tomorrow to see what the China markets are going to do. And the story will remain the same for next one week.