Dalal Street Week Ahead | Stocks and Commodities

February 21, 2016
Time: 8.30 am

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. Last week Nifty was up by 230 points.
2. This is the best week in 2016 not only for Nifty, for most markets in the world.
3. This rise came after a huge fall of 500 points the week before.
4. Markets seems to be stabilising at the lower levels.
5. Markets mat stabilise and move sideways from here or may move higher.
6. On Monday markets in Asia will be trading sideways as US markets closed mixed on Friday.
7. We have to see how traders will react to the fact that FIIs have turned net sellers on Friday after being net buyers on Thursday.
8. But the selling was low, below Rs 200 crores.
9. Friday itself, Volatility has gone down. I have not seen such a crash in premiums with such a small move in Nifty.
10. Nifty just moved 20 points, yet out of money Put options fell more than 20 points, Call options also fell more than 10 points.
11. Bank Nifty was up by 46 points but Bank Nifty 14300 Put option fell almost double that figure, it fell 86 points.
12. Even 14000 Put option fell 46 points. All Call options also fell by 20 points.
13. So going by options data, Nifty may go for sideways move rather than a sharp move on either side.
14. On Tuesday, consumer confidence data and existing home sales data are due from US.
15. On Wednesday, New Home Sales data is due from US.
16. On Wednesday, Core Durables Goods order data is due from US. Railway budget will an important event to watch during the market hours.
17. On Friday, GDP data is due from US.
18. Since there are lot of data due from US, US markets will be moving up and down based on the data and the world markets will also be moving the same way.
19. So it may be one day up and one day down for few more days.
20. Nifty may not fall much as we have under performed the world markets last week and budget expectation will also keep our markets alive.
21. Nifty tried to breakout every time and failed every time. But every time it is making progress.
22. So it may break out any time and in that case, Nifty will move higher to 8280-8320 level.
23. I will not be surprised if Nifty expires above 7300 on Thursday.
24. Since the correction has been very severe since January 1, markets may start moving higher from here.