Dalal Street Week Ahead | Stocks and Commodities

March 13, 2016
Time: 11 am

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. The week before last week, Nifty shot up after hitting 52 week low.
2. But last week it was a consolidation week.
3. Between last Friday and the Friday before, Nifty was up just by 25 points, not even half a percent.
4. This consolidation phase may last another one or two days.
5. Just few days before, all technical people took bearish view and said Nifty will fall towards 7250 levels.
6. Now the same people talk of breaking on the higher side, Nifty target is 7700 according to them.
7. Last week consolidation was between 7424 and 7547.
8. On Friday SGX Nifty closed at 7554 which is a bullish sign.
9. After SGX close, US markets moved even higher.
10. So Nifty may break out of the range 7400-7550 by tomorrow itself.
11. IIP data declared during the weekend was disappointing according to Raghuram Rajan.
12. So that will be read as a positive sign for rate cut.
13. So Banking stocks may continue to do well.
14. Bank Nifty was also consolidating between 15000 and 15500.
15. Once Bank Nifty crosses 15500, further momentum will take it to 15800 to 16000 level.
16. On Monday, WPI inflation data is due from India.
17. On Tuesday, markets will react to CPI inflation data to be declared on Monday evening. Core retail sales data is due from US.
18. On Wednesday, Building Permits data is due from US.
19. On Thursday, our markets will be reacting to US FOMC statement to be released on Wednesday night.
20. That may the game changer for our markets.
21. On Friday, there are no market moving news.
22. Nifty is expected to trade between 7400 and 7700.
23. If Nifty dips towards 7500, then one can go long in Nifty futures and sell one 7500 Call option and one 7800 Call option.
24. Or when Nifty dips towards 7500, one can sell 7300 Put and 7800 Call option.
25. Similarly, if Bank Nifty crosses 15500, then one can go long in Bank Nifty and sell one 15500 Call and one 16200 Call.
26. Or when Bank Nifty dips towards 15200, one can sell Bank Nifty 14800 Put and 16200 Call.
27. Keep appropriate stop losses, in case if markets throw some nasty surprises.