All about monsoon, May 29, 2016 | Stocks and Commodities

May 29, 2016
Time: 5 pm

All about monsoon:

1. I decided not to venture into Agriculture when I was young.
2. Instead I decided to buy a tractor for business purpose.
3. When the Bank Manager asked me why I was interested in buying tractor instead of getting into Agriculture.
4. This happened in 1984 and that time tractors were not common.
5. In fact within 25 km radius, there were only 2 tractors including ours.
6. I replied to the Bank Manager, "Agriculture is natures' gambling".
7. He appreciated that reply and arranged for loan immediately.
8. Though the tractor was used to transport sand and stones the returns were moderate.
9. But I got good return by ploughing the land when there was monsoon.
10. I blamed 'Nature (monsoon in this case)' but that only gave me a good return though I was not in to agriculture.
11. Then I became a Teacher, I went to Gujarat, then to Singapore, now in Chennai, into share trading and portfolio management.
12. Once again I am worrying about monsoon.
13. Just like tractor business, share business will also bring good profit only when monsoon is good.
14. Every one is talking about monsoon in share market.
15. I have already mentioned that if monsoon is good and some other factors support, we will see all time high in Nifty and Sensex by the end of this year.
16. In April, Skymet forecasted good monsoon, markets went up.
17. Then IMD said monsoon will be delayed by one week, markets corrected.
18. Again Skyment upgraded monsoon rainfall, within 4 days Nifty shot up by 500 points.
19. Though corporate results were good, monsoon was the main trigger for such a huge rally in less than a week.
20. So what is the meaning of 'onset of monsoon'.
21. There is rain now also, but they say it is 'Pre monsoon rain".
22. How do they define 'pre monsoon' and 'monsoon' rain.
23.   

24. Above picture shows 14 stations in Kerala, Karnataka and Lakshadweep and rainfall there for the last three days.

25. 9 out of these 14 stations should receive a minimum of 2.5 mm of rai for two days in a row.

26. That is the first condition. Note that on 28th May, 13 stations received more than the required raindfall.

27. If today also 9 stations recive more than 2.5 mm of rain then the first condition is met.

28. There is one more condition related to wind direction and cloud formation.

29. When both conditions are met, IMD will declare the "onset of monsoon"

30. So the onset of monsoon is just days away.

31. So expect the bull market to continue.

32. As I said earlier, I will not be surprised if Nifty expires above 8300 in June and above 9000 in October and above all time high by December 206.