Dalal Street Week Ahead | Stocks and Commodities

May 8, 2016
Time: 11 am

Dalal Street Week Ahead:

1. Last week, more bad news came and world markets fell.
2. Asian markets fell for 8 trading sessions in a row.
3. Nifty fell about 1.5% last week.
4. Manufacturing as well as Services PMI data came lower than last month data.
5. US payroll data also came much lower.
6. But on Friday US markets ended higher despite such a bad jobs data.
7. This shows that value is emerging after the recent fall. 
8. Nasdaq has fallen more than 10%.
9. In India, companies like Reliance, Infosys have declared very good results yet they have fallen 5 to 10% in the last few days.
10. So the buying can come at any time from now.
11. I feel that markets will start moving higher from tomorrow.
12. I still hold the view that May expiry will be above 8000.
13. This is only a correction since Nifty has has moved from 6800 to 8000 in a short span of time.
14. I will not be surprised if Nifty crosses 8300 by the end of June.
15. In that case, Nifty is likely to test the all time high before this Deepavali.
16. It all depends on moonsoon progress in June.
17. In the last week of May, we will start getting some updates from IMD regarding onset of monsoon.
18. So our market momentum will pick up only in the last two weeks of May.
19. On Monday, Nifty future is likely to open above 7800, if 7820 is crossed, then the next immediate target will be 7880. 
20. HUL results will be a key event to watch as that will affect the ITC share price which is an index heavy weight.
21. On Tuesday, there are no important quarterly results. If there is any follow up buying on Monday in US markets, our markets will recover more on Tuesday.
22. On Wednesday, Kotak Bank results is a key event. Good results from Kotak Bank will revive the Bank Nifty which has fallen about 500 points last week mainly due to ICICI Bank.
23. On Thursday, Dr Reddy will declare results. In the last few days, Pharma index has not been doing well. DrReddy is close to 52 week low. Good results from DrReddy will revive the interest in Pharma stocks.
24. After the markets close, IIP data and CPI Inflation data will be declared at 5.30 pm on Thursday.
25. On Friday, our markets will be reacting to IIP data and CPI Inflation data.
26. Nifty may make an attempt to move towards 8000 this week.
27. On the downside, 7500 will be a very good support.
28. Highest open interest among Puts is at 7700 followed by 7500.
29. Highest open interest among Calls is at 8000.
30. Open interest is much higher in Calls compared to Puts.
31. Bank Nifty June future is trading at discount to May future.
32. So market set up is bearish, any positive trigger will trigger the short covering. 
33. I will not be surprised if Nifty expires around 8200 in this expiry.