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September Outlook

August 29, 2016
Time: 8 am

September Outlook:

1. Since March 2016, Nifty has been closing higher on monthly basis.
2. Only in August series, Nifty closed lower marginally.
3. The correction in August was more of a time correction than price correction.
4. September could be different.
5. Price correction in September is very much possible.
6. But any correction in September will not be more than 4 to 5%.
7. I feel that Nifty will take very good support at 8200.
8. Though people are talking of US rate hike and as a consequence money flowing out of India, I feel that more money will flow out of bonds rather than stocks.
9. September is a 5 week expiry, but there are two public holidays.
10. September series is also beginning with 8500 Put and 9000 Call having highest open interest among Puts and Calls respectively.
11. On safe side, I sold Nifty 8200 Put and 9000 Call options.
12. I may move as and when markets move.
13. Corporate results are mostly lower.
14. So global cues will play dominant role.
15. US rate hike fear will linger for most part of September series.
16. Core sector growth, GDP data on August 31, monthly auto and cement sales data on September 1, US jobs data on September 2 and host of other data like Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, IIP, CPI and WPI inflation data, all will decide the movement of Nifty.
17. I sold Maruti 4500 Put and 5500 Call, Tata Motors 480 Put and 540 Call in September series.
18. Earlier I have sold Bank Nifty 17500 Put and 21000 Call and later I shifted 21000 Call to 20500 Call.
19. For high risk clients, I have sold Bank Nifty 20100, 20200 and 20300 Call as I am taking slightly bearish view about the markets and in particular Banking stocks.
20. Nifty is expected to trade between 8200 and 9000 in September.







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