Pre Market Report, November 15, 2017 | Stocks and Commodities

November 15, 2017
Time: 8.35 am

Pre Market Report:

1. US markets closed negative after a huge volatile session.
2. But US markets recovered a major portion of the losses in the last few hours.
3. GE fell for second day and that was a major reason for DOW fall.
4. In addition, Crude prices fell by 3% and Oil related stocks also fell.
5. But the fall in Crude is actually good news for India.
6. Asian markets are mostly down.
7. FIIs have bought for about Rs 2500 crores in Cash market but heavily shorting in Futures market.
8. Nifty is breaking techincal levels one by one.
9. Nifty closed at 10150 in July expiry.
10. After that Nifty had been trading between 9700 and 8180 for next three months.
11. Finally broke out last month and now Nifty is again back to 10180.
12. Today it seems that it will be broken.
13. Usually when Nifty trades in a range for three months and breaks out, Nifty should not fall below the previous high, i.e. 10180.
14. That is a bearish sign. But at the same time, if it is not closing below that level, then it is good.
15. Since FIIs have bought heavily in Cash market, DIIs did not sell in Cash market, Crude oil is falling by more than 3%, there may be some short covering towards the end of the day.
16. There is huge short positions and there may be some short covering rally in the near future.
17. But when that is going to happen and how much more market is going to fall before that? Nobody knows.
18. I started selling Call options above 10400 as I am losing hope of a meaningful recovery.
19. One consoling factor is that both Bank Nifty and Nifty future trade at a very good premium.
20. Bank of Baroda results are good and NPA is on the downward trajectory, so PSU Banks may support.
21. India VIX is inching towards 15, RSI is below 50, FIIs are in huge short, all these indicate that market is somewhere near the bottom.
22. If there are no more bad news, markets may stabilise around this level for one or two days and may move higher by short covering as and when there is some good news.
23. Even then I feel that selling 10400CE is worth as premiums will erode due to time value.
24. After today, there are only 11 trading sessions.
25. Nifty future may take support at 10160. Resistance may come at 10280.