My view, October 23, 2018 | Stocks and Commodities

October 23, 2018
Time: 8.15 am

My View about markets:

1. There were many corrections after 2008 US Economic Recession.
2. In 2011 - Europe problem, 2013 - Taper Tendrum, 2015 - China, 2016 - Trump cum Demonetisation, 2017 - Brexit.
3. But 2018 is extra ordinary as there were two major corrections, one in Feb, March 2018 and the second one is September, October 2018.
4. The destruction this time was the worst after 2018 correction.
5. This correction started with IL&FS issue, spilled over to Housing Finance companies.
6. Now it seems that it will spill over to the entire Economy, if right steps are not taken.
7. As per a report, Rs 1,50,000 Crore is at stake, will be coming for redemption or rollover in the next two months.
8. There are reports of more real estate companies defaulting on their loans.
9. We may be seeing a crisis similar to US in 2008.
10. In US, 2008 crisis was due to the real estate.
11. In India, Real Estate prices are much higher than US.
12. Huge volatility is killing the stock market traders.
13. Nifty fell from 11800 to 11150, then shot up to 10700, only to fall back to 10150 (if SGX Nifty is an indcation) all in two months.
14. Many quality stocks are falling double digit percentage points, latest being IndusInd Bank.
15. Unless Govt. takes strong measures, nobody can prevent stock market from collapsing.
16. FIIs keep selling since August 2017.
17. Last year, they have sold equities and moved into Debt.
18. Now they are selling both equity and Debt.
19. All looks Gloom and Doom now.
20. We do not know what is going to change the sentiment.