Pre Market Report, February 7, 2019 | Stocks and Commodities

February 7, 2019
Time: 7 am

Pre Market Report:

1. Writing the blog much earlier as I am travelling again to my Hedge Fund friend's office.
2. Today evening will also be meeting one of the Hedge Fund Manager of top 5 Hedge Funds of the world.
3. US markets closed slightly lower after moving higher for last many days.
4. This is just a consolidation.
5. Nifty future shot up from the low of 10830 on Feb 4 to 11100 on Feb 6.
6. Just 3 trading session, almost 300 points.
7. Yesterday Bank Nifty hugely under performed Nifty otherwise Nifty would have added another 40, 50 points.
8. With markets decisively broken, now the trading range may shift higher.
9. Earlier 10500 to 11000 was the range for past few months.
10. Now that may shift to 11000 to 11500.
11. I sold 11500CE, 11600CE, 11700CE in April contract as Hedge for my portfolio.
12. I have not seen this kind of bearish mood even in 2008, everyone was bearish and markets shot up, surprising everyone.
13. There are people who are still talking about Nifty 8000, 8500. The least pessimistic people talk about 9000 and 9200.
14. Today the focus will be on RBI policy.
15. But Bank Nifty under performed yesterday, so any negative seems to have been priced in.
16. People expect rate cut of 25 to 50 basis point.
17. But I do not think that is going to happen.
18. May be, they may tinker with CRR cut of SLR cut.
19. But NBFCs shot up yesterday, Bajaj Finance look bullish.
20. Expiry day trade is going to be very difficult due to RBI policy.
21. At least one good news is that it comes before Noon.
22. Bank Nifty Max Pain is around 27300.
23. Huge OI added in 27600CE.
24. Huge OI added in 27100PE and 27400PE also.
25. I expect Bank Nifty to expire between 27400 and 27600 after huge volatility due to RBI news.
26. Nifty is likely to consolidate after 300 point rally.
27. Nifty future is likely to take support at 11000.
28. Resistance may come around 11160.