Pre Market Market, October 4, 2019 | Stocks and Commodities

October 4, 2019
Time: 8 am

Pre Market Market:

1. After falling 800 points in last two days, Dow fell another 300 points i to close veredn the morning trade.
2. Later, recovered to close more than 100 points up.
3. But Asian markets are mixed.
4. SGX Nifty is almost flat with positive bias.
5. Last few days, markets have been highly volatile.
6. YES Bank fell 15% one day, fell 30% next day, then shot up 33% next day.
7. Yesterday markets were highly volatile but within a range.
8. Nifty future traded with high volatility but traded between 11310 and 11420.
9. But bank Nifty hugely under performed.
10. Today we have to see whether Bank Nifty out performs or not.
11. One, HDFC Bank ADR is up by 2%, if it moves 2% here that alone can contibute 200 points to Bank Nifty.
12. ICICI Bank ADR is also up.
13. On top of this, RBI policy will play a major role in moving Bank Nifty.
14. But now a days, RBI insists that Banks pass on the benefits immediately to end customers, so any reduction in interest rate alone, may not help Bank Nifty.
15. Option Premiums are so high due to huge volatility and RBI policy.
16. Bank Nifty closed around 28400, but 30000CE weekly option trading around Rs 100.
17. Hopefully premiums drop after the RBI policy.
18. As I stated earlier, Nifty is likely to trade between 11200 and 11800, but it may go all over places as this is a 5 week series, with RBI policy, corporate results and many more reasons.
19. Right now we are trading at the lower end of the trading range.
20. On any dip, one can consider selling Puts of 11000 and below.
21. I am planning for some 11500 straddle if markets move higher.
22. Crde is consolidating below US$60.
23. Nifty future may trade between 11320 and 11460.
24. Yesterday's high was 11418, if that is crossed and trades firmly above, then markets will move further.
25. But move will come with huge volatility.