Pre Market Report, March 11, 2020 | Stocks and Commodities

March 11, 2020
Time: 8.15 am

Pre Market Report:

1. US markets are hugely volatile.
2. S&P 500 VIX hit a high of 61.
3. Every day Dow making more than 1000 point move.
4. Day before yesterday it was down by about 2000 points, highest one day fall.
5. Yesterday up by about 1200 as payroll Tax cut is being proposed.
6. Right now Dow futures down by more than 700 points.
7. Yesterday our markets closed.
8. But SGX Nifty went all over the places from 10170 and 10600.
9. Asian markets are mixed.
10. SGX Nifty is trading about 50 points lower.
11. Crude has recovered as Russia hinting at negotiation.
12. So far I have suggesting selling Call options on any bounce.
13. Now markets seems to have factored in mot of the negatives.
14. From now on any dip, it is better to square up the Calls and trade only in weekly options with limited quantity.
15. Usually Govts and Central Banks take some action when markets are at lows.
16. This Payroll Tax cut may trigger a rally in US markets as and when it comes.
17. Tomorrow ECB meeting is there, they are very famous for taking bold decisions to revive the Economy.
18. Then next week, Fed meeting, Fed is expected cut rates by 75 basis point.
19. If required RBI may cut rates, if demanded by foreign Central Banks for coordinated action.
20. Monday Reliance alone contributed 145 points for Nifty fall.
21. As Crude recovered more than 10% since Monday evening, Reliance may move higher.
22. So somehow I have a felling that we are near bottom.
23. Corona Virus came, our markets fell, Nifty traded between 11000 and 11500 with huge volatility.
24. I thought Nifty will bottom out around 11000.
25. Then YES Bank issue came, NSE made all YES Bank FD collateral haircut to 100%.
26. That created huge unwinding of positions, Nifty fell.
27. I thought Nifty will trade with huge volatility between 10800 and 11300 but will bottom out at 10800.
28. Then came Crude shock from Crude prices.
29. Markets fell again. Now I am expecting markets to trade with huge volatility between 10200 and 10700.
30. If some monetary and Fiscal measures come, markets may see short covering rallies.
31. So next one week is very important for all these measures.
32. Corona Virus may take time as cases are peaking out in many countries.
33. In China, it is very much under control.
34. Even China President visited Wuhan area an that is a positive sign.
35. Corona virus started from China, markets fell all over the world, but the most resilient market is China's market.
36. Monday's fall is the worst intraday fall in our markets.
37. Nifty fell more than 500 points and that too for third time, first two times due to Corona Virus and YES Bank.
38. Nifty has lost more than 1200 points during these three days and Nifty has lost more than 2000 points since January 14.
39. It has to consolidate for some time before moving higher.
40. That would be healthy for markets.
41. I sold 10700CE in weekly.
42. Expecting recovery anytime, I avoided selling Call at nearer strikes.
43. Sold March 11000CE, April 11000, 11200, 11500CE.
44. YES Bank may recover some more lost ground as many others show interest in taking stake.
45. Nifty future may trade between 10300 and 10600.