November 27, 2020
Time: 8 am
Pre Market Report:
- Yesterday US markets were closed.
- Asian markets are mixed.
- European and US futures are down slightly.
- SGX Nifty is up slightly.
- After one day of pause, resumed their buying.
- FIIs have bought for Rs 2027 crores.
- But DIIs have sold for Rs 3400 crores which is much higher than FII buy figure.
- But markets were up, as people have shorted heavily the day before.
- November series, Nifty low was 11500 and high was 13150.
- FIIs have pumped in nearly Rs 60K crores, highest ever monthly flow.
- On an average, world markets were up by 10 to 12%.
- Bank Nifty out performed.
- Most interesting thing about October, November rally is that Nifty is up by more than 20% and Reliance, highest weighted stock, is down by more than 20%.
- December series begins with huge optimism.
- Usually markets correct when a series begins with huge optimism.
- Number one, Nifty has already moved more than 20% in last two months and Bank Nifty moved about 50%.
- Second, FIIs can not keep pumping money this forever. We have seen how markets fell on Wednesday when FIIs just paused. What would have happened if they have sold?
- Three, usually December month is a profit booking month for FIIs due to account closure as they work with Jan-Dec Financial year.
- FIIs long position is at 77% in Futures while short positions is at 23%.
- This is one of the highest long-short ratio.
- Usually markets correct when this ratio is high.
- Today evening GDP data will be out.
- But that is lag indicator, markets ignore.
- I am planning to take some short positions in Bank Nifty, if Bank Nifty touched 30K.
- Planning at average shorts at every 1000 point move.
- Will also hedge through Options.
- December series is a 5 week series.
- Usually 5 week series is not good for Option writers.
- Markets tend to move all over the places.
- Nifty future may trade between 12950 and 13150.
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